The Waypoint Hypothesis

A simple hypothesis on the disappearance of MH370

The Destination

Punta
Punta Arenas, SA, courtesy Wikipedia

The original hypothesis and simple assumptions introduced a destination for MH370:  Punta Arenas, South America.  The complete path proposed in the original hypothesis looks like this on SkyVector.

A simple path, defined by the waypoints:  IGARI VPG VAMPI MEKAR RUNUT and SCCI.  

SCCI is the waypoint located at Punta Arenas, South America.  This waypoint could never have been reached, but the plane would fly in that direction if it was entered in the Flight Management System. This is why I call it the Waypoint Hypothesis.  Few people considered such a possibility in the early years of the MH370 investigation and this is where the hypothesis breaks off from every other.

The loneliest, remotest, roughest places on Earth. The yellow star depicts where MH370 is believed to have run out of fuel on the white RUNUT to SCCI waypoint path.

Maps of the search area rarely give you the perspective shown above of how remote this place is.   This target would result in MH370 running out of fuel in one of the remotest regions on Earth, far from land, equidistant between Africa and Australia, where search is unlikely to succeed, where nobody is likely to see it crash, where it is unlikely to be seen on any radar.

The closest inhabited land is the Kerguelen Islands belong to France and are a thinly populated research outpost with no ability to provide search capability or help and far enough away to not see anything if they were even looking.   You can reportedly tour them on one of four trips a year at € 13,000 for a single cabin for two weeks and with 2 weeks at sea to get there and back.  They are still some 1000 miles away.  You really couldn’t pick a better path to disappear a plane with the fuel available.  Of all the paths possible along the 7th arc, only this one just barely gets the plane to the “roaring forties” where rough seas have the potential to make recovery difficult if the plane is found.

The Waypoint Hypothesis needs another crucial piece of evidence to pinpoint the location of MH370 along the waypoint path.  For that, read X Marks the spot.

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