Assumptions

A little over one year ago, MH370 disappeared from contact.  Despite a massive search effort, MH370 has not been located, and no trace of it has been found.   Two weeks after the disappearance, a simple hypothesis was posted on Reddit that the plane was intentionally flown via waypoints with a specific destination in mind.

I’m GlobusMax, and I posted that hypothesis.  In the year since disappearance, the hypothesis hasn’t changed, and the area it leads to has never been searched thoroughly, although no evidence has come forth to refute it.  In fact, new evidence has appeared that seems to support it.   The hypothesis is very simple and relies on one basic assumption:  someone was trying to make the plane disappear.   The evidence at the time it was developed supporting it was slim.  After a year, the biggest piece of evidence now supporting the hypothesis is that if true, it worked.  No trace of the plane has ever been found.  Without an old wobbly satellite and it’s infrequent communications with MH370 and the scientists who figured out how to use that data to help locate it, we might have no idea where the plane is at all.  More detailed supporting evidence of the main assumption will be discussed here in the future, but for now, this is the simplest supporting evidence.

The hypothesis was deduced by observing the radar data presented by the Malaysian Government to the MH370 families at the Lido Hotel in Beijing:

Lido Hotel radar data

My annotations in black show the names and locations of known waypoints along the path of travel.  Waypoints are simply fixed points used commonly in air navigation.  The glowing green dots are the radar returns of what is believed to be MH370 as it traveled northwest (from right to left) over the Malacca Strait north of Indonesia.  Though the Malaysian Government has later confirmed this data, the only reason this image exists is that several cameras snapped an image of it and it was published on a Chinese website around March 21, 2014.  The simple, but slight change of direction at waypoint VAMPI is the clue that the plane is navigating waypoints under intentional control – someone intended it to fly that way.  There is no other conclusion.

Given the location and direction of travel alone, there is no apparent landing destination ahead in mind, such as an emergency landing strip, though others who have looked at this picture have disagreed.  By this time, the plane had already passed Penang which is closer to potential emergency landing strips.  In a later post, we’ll examine other evidence that whoever programmed this path had no intention of stopping anywhere close.

A second assumption was born: if MH370 was navigating waypoints during this portion of travel, it most likely navigated waypoints for the rest of the journey.  Whoever programmed the above path had a specific destination in mind, and as will be detailed in future posts, a definite plan. Within a day or so of seeing this picture and searching around, a final waypoint destination stood out:  Punta Arenas, South America.

Aside:  I have had countless debates with some who insist the above image is either not real or completely invalid.   There merit to the argument that the Malaysians are not showing an actual radar screen – this is of course a reconstruction of traces received over a period of time with a background applied.  I profess no knowledge as to what a Malaysian military radar reconstruction image should look like or if this has been further processed.   Certainly, there are what must  have been the presence of other planes not shown.  Nevertheless, the fact is, this image is widely accepted in the crowd source  community and it fits like a puzzle piece between the satellite data and radar data the Malaysians have now published east of Penang and fits timing analyses.  There is no reason to doubt the veracity of what the Malaysians presented to the families at the Lido Hotel.

I don’t think the Malaysians wanted to present radar data, but their hand was forced by families demanding to know (and rightly so) why the search was moved far west of the South China Sea and eventually to the South Indian Ocean.  Everyone was scratching their heads.

When we examine the latest radar data that immediately precedes this part of the path published by the Malaysians in a future post, we will still support that the plane was flown intentionally and via waypoints.

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3 thoughts on “Assumptions

  1. Pingback: Why? | The Waypoint Hypothesis

  2. Pingback: Six independent degrees of support | The Waypoint Hypothesis

  3. Pingback: The brains of a Boeing 777, simple and complex | The Waypoint Hypothesis

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