The Waypoint Hypothesis

A simple hypothesis on the disappearance of MH370, developed March, 2014


Despite a massive search effort, MH370 has not been located, and other than debris, no trace of it has been found.   Two weeks after the disappearance, I formulated a simple hypothesis and posted on Reddit that the plane was intentionally flown via waypoints with a specific destination in mind.

Since disappearance, the hypothesis hasn’t changed, and the area it leads to has never been searched thoroughly as of 2018.  The hypothesis is very simple and relies on one basic assumption:  someone was trying to make the plane disappear.   It has thus far worked and has baffled world experts for nearly four years.  

The hypothesis was deduced by observing the radar data presented by the Malaysian Government to the MH370 families at the Lido Hotel in Beijing:

Lido Hotel radar data

My annotations in black show the names and locations of known waypoints along the path of travel.  Waypoints are simply fixed points used commonly in air navigation.  The glowing green dots are the radar returns of what is believed to be MH370 as it traveled northwest (from right to left) over the Malacca Strait north of Indonesia.  Though the Malaysian Government has later confirmed this data, the only reason this image exists is that several cameras snapped an image of it and it was published on a Chinese website around March 21, 2014.  The simple, but slight change of direction at waypoint VAMPI is the clue that the plane is navigating waypoints under intentional control – someone intended it to fly that way.  There is no other conclusion.

Given the location and direction of travel alone, there is no apparent landing destination ahead in mind, such as an emergency landing strip, though others who have looked at this picture have disagreed.  By this time, the plane had already passed Penang which is closer to potential emergency landing strips.  In a later post, we’ll examine other evidence that whoever programmed this path had no intention of stopping anywhere close.

A second assumption was born: if MH370 was navigating waypoints during this portion of travel, it most likely navigated waypoints for the rest of the journey.  Whoever programmed the above path had a specific destination in mind, and as will be detailed in future posts, a definite plan. Within a day or so of seeing this picture and searching around, a final waypoint destination stood out:  Punta Arenas, South America.  That predicts an endpoint near the 7th arc at S40.1743 E84.6945.


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