Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler
It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of a single datum of experience. – Albert Einstein
The main reason for the creation of this site began a couple of weeks ago, when I decided to immerse myself in the latest developments in the search for MH370. I became somewhat known for reverse-engineering the Inmarsat BTO data the authorities would not release about three weeks after the disappearance, and a week after formulating the Waypoint Hypothesis. This allowed independent researchers a small breakthrough in cracking the code of the satellite data and examining possible locations. Turns out my work was only as good as the poor diagram we had to work with, but it was a start. Eventually the raw data was released.
From that core, the Independent Group (IG) eventually emerged and began trying to crack the other half of the code, the BFO (Burst Frequency Offset) or Doppler that allowed Inmarsat to say the plane went north or the plane went south. Eventually, Inmarsat released the methodology (or the IG cracked it first, I’m not sure) and the IG and others came up with their own analyses to match and compare to the official investigation. Legend has it the IG became influential in steering the official investigation towards a more reasonable search location indicated by the satellite data, though they (officials) won’t admit to it.
I strongly support the current search of the IG/ATSB combined swath. It is arguably where the satellite data alone points as most likely, but other areas can be made to fit, including the Waypoint Hypothesis I believe, and that gets back to the quote at the top of the page.
It’s prudent to compute the most likely location holistically, taking into account human factors and any other relevant data. Satellite data alone may be too simple, and subject to interpretation that leads to a wide swath, and limited search resources spread too thinly. There are ways to further narrow the search if the current campaign that ends in May 2015 does not find MH370. The search must continue if so. I believe “X” Marks the spot type analyses are warranted for the next phase. A holistic view can lead to new insights and understanding as possibilities are ruled out. It is prudent to set down the computers for a moment and ask “Why?”